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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a resolute stance on Ukraine. Following making threats of "significant repercussions" in August should Russia's president continued hindering truce discussions, the former president finally imposed substantial sanctions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously affected the Russian leader's ability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, via his newly presented detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or European participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Benefiting Military Action

The former president's initiative would essentially benefit Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democracy in peril. Although ringing proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively compromise that essential independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his corporate past, the former president persists to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple border issue, like handing Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. Yet, Putin's war is not simply about controlling a damaged area of deindustrialized land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent intention to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Border Concessions

While freezing in place the already separated Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would require the nation to surrender all of Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unable to occupy in over a ten years of fighting, this giveaway would render Ukraine's military defenses critically weakened.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that constitute a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, giving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv in case he later choose to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would make renewed fighting more feasible for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the scale of its armed forces from their present large number soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative sets no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as radicals, the proposal declares: "Every radical belief system and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this element, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. However, Trump places no condition that Putin endanger his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has breached comparable treaties in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to respect Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a handback of seized land in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should the international community trust Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western defense commitments. Although the plan threatens a "immediate coordinated military response" if the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the details range from unclear to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent member states from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Russia from replenishing his weakened forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Response

A separate side agreement apparently would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to respond through arms to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not