Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline 37% During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The typical figure of daily murders each month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh administrative data. But, security experts have warned that homicide numbers may not indicate better countrywide security.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably significant,” the President remarked, noting that in November the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime infighting, combined with the government’s heavily military operations to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an apparently sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

But, security experts warned that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to properly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was also concerning because it might hide periods when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.