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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."